The science behind the warming of cold places
Many of the world’s coldest parts are also the places warming the fastest. It all comes down to polar amplification – a process that sees melting snow and ice reduce the Earth’s reflectivity. Bright, frozen surfaces typically bounce sunlight back into the atmosphere; when they melt, darker ground and ocean, which would otherwise be hidden underneath, absorb that heat instead, accelerating warming in surrounding areas. This effect is especially pronounced in regions like northern Canada, Greenland and Siberia, where ice loss is increasingly year-round.
A 2022 study in Nature Communications Earth & Environment confirmed that the Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the global average. And while the Middle East may be heating more rapidly in summer extremes, Arctic and sub-Arctic regions are where the long-term rate of change is sharpest.
Why climate change can lead to colder winters
Global warming, or climate change, doesn’t always translate to milder winters. Instead, it brings instability, with more erratic cold. A warming climate may shift averages upward long-term, but it also stretches the extremes, so a mild January might be followed by a severe Arctic front, while a thaw can give way to a record-breaking blizzard, as was experienced in the US earlier this year, when Winter Storm Hernando hit the Northeast coast, grounding thousands of flights and leaving towns without power.
This volatility is, in part, caused by jet streams – a high-altitude air current that typically keeps polar air locked in the Arctic. As the region warms and sea ice retreats, the jet stream weakens and shifts. This allows cold Arctic air to plunge further south, and warmer air to move north, increasing the frequency of polar vortex events and sharpening contrasts between seasons.
The result isn’t a straightforward rise in temperature but a climate marked by sudden swings: heavier snowfall, delayed freezes, earlier thaws, and less predictability overall. The world’s coldest countries are still cold but the nature of that cold is changing.
This story was originally published by Condé Nast Traveller Middle East