September 1, 2023: Thaksin Shinawatra’s leaning toward the establishment, the new governing coalition bringing together past ideological rivals, and the rise of the Move Forward Party with its own die-hard supporters all point to the high possibility that the red-shirt movement will become splintered with some of its elements more extreme than others.
Will the red shirts remain a political force to be reckoned with? Possibly but tough. Possibly because Pheu Thai, which they support, is being forced to compromise, not exactly willing to do so. This means that there is always a chance the red shirts will return to their characteristic aggression. Tough because even if Pheu Thai wants to make another U-turn yet, such a move will be difficult for obvious reasons. If Pheu Thai finds it hard to manoeuvre, so will the red shirts.
The movement will have many shades. Very likely, some red shirts will become benign, others will maintain the trademarked rebellious attitude, and some others still will turn “orange” completely after disavowing Pheu Thai. What happens to the Srettha coalition will determine which group is the biggest and then the long-term future of the movement.
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