File photo REUTERS/Tom Brenner
August 1, 2022: Signs are that the US House speaker, in Singapore now, would not visit Taiwan, but if she does, it could be a real dynamite affecting world and domestic politics.
Singapore is her first stop, and her delegation also plans to visit Malaysia, South Korean and Japan. High-level meetings are scheduled everywhere along the way.
Her official itinerary does not include Taiwan. Taiwanese officials have not confirmed she would visit. Reports of White House lobbying against such a trip have intensified. China has warned the US President not to play with fire. Western media are downgrading it from “could” to “might.” These point to Nancy Pelosi returning home without a major diplomatic mess for Joe Biden to sort out. Both are members of the Democratic Party after all.
But those signs will make the whole thing more explosive than initially if she remains determined. Visiting Taiwan in spite of all of the aforementioned would be considered by Beijing as a real provocation and cheekiness at the highest level. Washington can claim “We are a free country so she can go anywhere”, but China will have the right to think that all the lobbying and White House anxiety were a façade and get even angrier.
Will a “vacation” claim work in case she pops in? No, considering all the fuss and everyone’s attention. Besides, beautiful, sunny beaches are all over Asia. What about visiting friends or relatives? Surely they can be given free trips to America so the whole world can be spared a huge superpower showdown.
Daily updates of significant local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim
