For many travellers with trips to or from the Middle East, the coming weeks already had plans attached to them. Flights had been booked for Eid Al Fitr, family visits arranged and spring holidays mapped out well in advance, before escalating regional conflict prompted airspace closures across the region.
Flights are gradually resuming and restrictions are easing in stages, but aviation experts caution that the system rarely moves cleanly from closure back to normal operations. Routes may reopen while specific corridors remain restricted, forcing airlines to reroute aircraft or adjust schedules with little notice. In periods like this, airspace can reopen one day and close again the next if security conditions shift.
“Airspace conditions can change relatively quickly in response to safety developments,” says Mohanad Nada, GCC head at business travel platform Tumodo. “Authorities may restrict certain corridors or require airlines to reroute around particular areas.”
For travellers with journeys planned later this March or into April – whether departing the region or flying in – the challenge is less about predicting what will happen and more about knowing how to respond if conditions shift again.
Should you cancel your flight now or wait?
The instinct when uncertainty grows is to act quickly. Travellers begin looking for alternate routes, adjusting bookings or cancelling reservations while options still appear available. In aviation, however, moving too early can sometimes remove the protections that come with confirmed disruption.
“If your flight is still scheduled and running normally, hold your ticket,” says Alena Iakina, founder of visarun.ai. “Rebooking too soon could cost you more or reduce your options.”
Airlines typically introduce flexibility measures once disruption becomes operationally clear. Until a flight is officially cancelled or significantly altered, passengers who change bookings voluntarily may still be subject to the original fare rules.
Nada says most travellers are better served by monitoring developments rather than reacting immediately. “For most travellers, the sensible approach is to hold their tickets and monitor updates from airlines,” he says. “Airlines often introduce flexible rebooking policies during periods of uncertainty.”
Waiting, however, is not entirely risk-free. If an airline cancels a flight close to departure, passengers are usually entitled to a refund or rebooking for the airfare itself – but the rest of the trip may not be covered. Hotels, tours and other prepaid bookings abroad often fall under their own cancellation policies, which do not necessarily align with airline disruption timelines. That means a traveller could recover the cost of the flight while still facing charges at the destination.
For that reason, experts recommend reviewing accommodation policies early and confirming whether bookings can be moved or refunded if flights are disrupted.
Why an open airspace doesn’t guarantee stability
Announcements that airspace is reopening can suggest that the disruption has passed. In practice, aviation systems tend to stabilise more gradually.
Operational restrictions are communicated through Notices to Airmen, or NOTAMs – directives issued by aviation authorities that inform airlines which routes remain open and which must be avoided. These advisories can appear with very little advance warning.
“In situations like this, airspace closures can be announced through NOTAMs with only hours of notice,” says Iakina. “Airlines and passengers often find out at roughly the same time.”
Even when routes reopen, aircraft may no longer follow the same paths they originally did. Airlines may be required to detour around restricted airspace, extend flight paths or reroute aircraft through different hubs. “A sudden full closure of major airspace is relatively rare,” says Nada. “More commonly, authorities restrict certain corridors and airlines reroute flights around them.”
