here’s how it could affect travel plans now and in the future
The most alarming forecasts raise the possibility that the event could eventually cross into “super El Niño” territory, an unofficial term generally applied when temperatures in a key part of the tropical Pacific rise at least 2°C above normal, with such events occurring only around once every decade or so, and historically leaving a trail of droughts, floods, fires and failed harvests across several continents.
“When you have an El Niño over what climate change already brought, the risks are enormous,” Francisco Aquino, head of the climate centre at Brazil’s Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, told Reuters. Piers Forster, professor of physical climate change at the University of Leeds, meanwhile described the developing event as a potential “window into the future” – a preview of weather extremes that may become increasingly ordinary as the planet continues to warm.
Here’s everything travellers need to know about this year’s El Niño weather system.
El Niño is a recurring warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can disturb weather thousands of miles beyond the ocean where it begins. Under usual conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface water westwards towards Indonesia and northern Australia. Cold, nutrient-rich water rises from the depths off Peru and Ecuador, while the warmer western Pacific produces some of the world’s most dramatic tropical rainstorms.
During El Niño, those trade winds weaken, and the great reservoir of warm water begins sliding back towards the east, suppressing the cold upwelling off South America and dragging the principal zone of tropical thunderstorms across the Pacific with it.
That interferes with the Walker circulation – the vast loop of rising and sinking air above the tropics – and sends a series of atmospheric ripples around the planet, with results that can appear entirely disconnected from their source.
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According to several meteorological agencies around the world, including the World Meteorological Organisation, yes, El Niño now officially underway. El Niño conditions have been present since spring 2026 and are now “firmly established”. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027. The NOAA released their U.S. winter outlook on 15 October predicting heavy rain across much of the country. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”